Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

The referendum that is scottish Bookies were predicting an 80 percent possibility of a ‘no’ vote, while the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies understand the results of this Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.

Scotland has voted in which to stay the UK, with 55.3 % of voters determining against dissolving the 300-year union of nations and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was since wide as 10 %; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to call and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions were split straight down the middle.

The stark reality is, polls were throughout the place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote into the weeks leading up to your referendum. And they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory although they were correctly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the big day.

Margins of mistake

Maybe Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured out ages ago. Although the pollsters’ predictions were see-sawing, online sports wagering outfit Betfair had already determined to pay out bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote several days ahead of the referendum even occurred. And while there is a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from the place of supreme confidence, because the betting areas were rating the probability of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the least a week before the vote took place. It had been a forecast that, unlike that of the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead up to the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared with the wagering markets, and just why is the news in such thrall to their wildly results that are unreliable? The polling organizations freely acknowledge that their studies are inaccurate, frequently advising that we must allow for a margin of mistake, commonly around five percent. Which means in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their information is utterly worthless. In a race where one party, in line with the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent, the existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless.

The Wrong Questions

There are many factors which make polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to record here. Sometimes the test size of participants is simply too low, or it is unrepresentative of the populace. Sometimes they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are sloppy or dishonest about recording information. But the ultimate, prevailing explanation why polls fail is which they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people whom they are going to vote for, they ought to be asking the relevant question that the bookies constantly ask: ‘Who you think will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers implies that this question yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also reflect on the opinions of these around them, and possibly also since it may yield more truthful answers.’

Dishonest Answers

In a case such as the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change, those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to express their support for change, while curbing their concerns about the feasible negative effects. When expected about an issue on the location, it’s easier to express the perceived view that is popular. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might represent the appealing idea of severing ties with a remote and unpopular government in Westminster, but it also means uncertainty and possible economic chaos.

As Wolfers claims, ‘There is a historical propensity for polling to overstate the chance of success of referendums, perhaps because we’re more willing to share with pollsters we will vote for change than to do so. Such biases are less inclined to distort polls that ask people who they think will win. Indeed, in providing their objectives, some respondents may also mirror on whether or otherwise not they believe current polling.

In a nutshell, when asked whether they would vote for an independent Scotland, a substantial amount of Scots evidently lied. Gamblers, on the other hand, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close Following Wynn Everett License Choose

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 percent in the last few years. Now the selection of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino permit has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image: bloodhorse.com)

Suffolk Downs, the historic thoroughbred horseracing track in East Boston, is to close, officials have established. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the single East Massachusetts casino license with regards to their Wynn Everett project, which will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring an unlikely casino repeal vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the casualty that is first of week’s selection process. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the final nail into the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in the state. Suffolk is certainly one of only two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, and the only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort was to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the very least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better potential to create jobs and start up brand new avenues of revenue for hawaii. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the announcement that the track will never have the ability to continue immediately after the Gaming Commission’s decision ended up being made public.

End for the Track

‘we have been extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth tens of thousands of jobs, small business and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We are going to be meeting with workers and horsemen over the next several times to explore how exactly we wind down racing operations, being a legacy that is 79-year of racing in Massachusetts will be coming to an end, resulting in unemployment and doubt for many hardworking individuals.’

The industry has been hit by a 40 % lowering of modern times and Suffolk’s closure will probably impact hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others whom make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The need to safeguard Suffolk Downs had been one of many primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the decision to go with Wynn has angered lots of people.

‘Today’s decision to honor the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents out of work,’ stated Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could minmise the working jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Deep History

Many industry workers feel betrayed by politicians and the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so difficult to obtain that gaming bill passed using the indisputable fact that it was going to conserve the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and manager of the farm that is breeding who added that the ruling would ‘probably virtually … put all of the farms like mine out of business.’

Suffolk Downs exposed in 1935, immediately after parimutuel betting was legalized within the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap here, breaking the history in the process. The race was attended by 40,000 people. Through the years, the track has hosted races featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert right here regarding the track’s infield in front of 24,000 screaming fans.

Ultimately, however, a history that is richn’t sufficient to save yourself Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill that has been designed to rescue this famous old racetrack appears to have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump serious about saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And will he?

The word from The Donald is that he can, and what’s more, he says he is exactly what AC was missing each one of these years. As the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors this week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment ready to file for bankruptcy, the billionaire real estate mogul announced that he’s ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt.

Asked by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would step in to truly save The Trump Plaza and its particular at-risk sister property, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what goes on. It. if I am able to help the people of Atlantic City we’ll do’

Later, on Twitter, and clearly warming to their theme, Trump said: ‘we left Atlantic City years back, good timing. Now I may purchase back, at lower expense, to save yourself Plaza & Taj. They were run poorly by funds!’

Trump has been hugely critical of his former company Trump Entertainment in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, possibly getting wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched appropriate proceedings to have his name eliminated through the casinos in an attempt to safeguard their brand, of which he could be hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City numerous years back,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall into an utter state of disrepair and have otherwise failed to operate and manage the casino properties in accordance with the high criteria of quality and luxury needed under the permit agreement.’

Trump left the nj casino industry during 2009, and Trump Entertainment was bought down by a group of hedge fund managers and corporate bondholders, who have been permitted to retain the brand name in return for a 10 % ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized company. He has had nothing to do with the gambling enterprises’ day-to-day operations since then.

‘Does anybody notice that Atlantic City lost its miracle once I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It is really so sad to see just what has happened to Atlantic City. Therefore many decisions that are bad the pols over the years: airport, convention center, etc.’

Within the very early ’80s, Trump embarked on a joint project with Holiday Inn and Harrahs to build the vacation Inn Casino resort. It absolutely was completed in 1984, in which he immediately bought out his company partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the casino that is first ever owned, and this week it closed. Would it be that the notoriously cold-blooded property developer has a side that is sentimental? Or perhaps is it, simply, as many individuals think, that he can’t resist some good promotion?

Publicity Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) thinks in the explanation that is latter.

‘Donald is just a guy who likes to see his title into the paper,’ he stated. ‘He’s never been shy about looking for publicity or publicity that is obtaining. Issue is whether this is more promotion for Donald or whether he is seriously interested in coming back to Atlantic City in a way that is real. We will see later on. Is Donald Trump wanting to get some publicity, or perhaps is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and compose some checks heart of vegas slots casino itunes.’

‘I am able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to return as a savior,’ consented consultant that is gaming Norton. ‘ I don’t think Donald’s title would help the casinos that much,’ he stated. ‘Our issue is, other casinos have exposed up and stop traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, so that as if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on the top associated with Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to place his cash where their mouth is?